First EWP Experimental Warning of 2015

The EWP in 2015 is operating with 6 forecasters evaluating experimental convective nowcast/forecast products.  The forecasters are split into 3 teams of 2 forecasters, with coverage today over the Midland, TX, Omaha, NE, and Topeka, KS WFOs.

The first experimental warning of the 2015 EWP season was issued by the team over the Topeka, KS WFO.  The forecaster commented they made the decision based analysis of base radar data, Earth Networks Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts (EN DTAs), and NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model output.  At 2002 UTC a forecaster issued an experimental severe thunderstorm warning for the storm indicated in the figure below.  The ProbSevere output for this storm first exceeded the 50% threshold at 1954 UTC and was 79% at 2000 UTC.   Note how this is the only cell in the Topeka region with elevated probabilities, enhancing forecaster confidence.  More on this storm will be included in an entry from the forecast team.

MRMS Reflectivity and NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere output valid 2000 UTC 04 May 2015 over northeastern Kansas (Topeka WFO)

-Sieglaff