EWP AMA team issues experimental severe thunderstorm warning

The forecasters covering the AMA CWA issued an experimental severe thunderstorm warning for a thunderstorm over the Oklahoma panhandle at 2114 UTC 07 May 2015.  The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere value jumped to 87% for this storm at 2110 UTC 07 May 2015 (Figure 1).

Figure 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMS composite reflectivity valid at 2110 UTC 07 May 2015.

The forecasters attributed their warning to their assessment of the environment, HRRR forecasts indicating potential for sustained updrafts, NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere trends, and analysis of base radar data.

UPDATE:  2136 UTC 07 May 2015 the AMA team issued another experimental severe thunderstorm warning for a storm in Oldham County, Texas.  The team noted high ProbSevere values despite the MRMS MESH being just under 1.00".  Despite the sub-severe MESH, the ProbSevere higher probabilities (80+%) are attributed to moderate derived vertical growth rates and glaciation rates and a favorable environment in addition to near-severe MESH values.

-Sieglaff