Highest instability/moisture exists across se portions of the CWA…tapering to moderate across nw portions of the region. (Fig 1&2)This matches fairly well with model progs. But this enviromnment is being advecting nw based on s/se flow low-level flow. Model analysis indicates strongest deep layer shear values will be across nw portions of the cwa (around 40kt)…with marginal values across se portions (25 kt). Combined shear/instability fields indicate highest potential for organized severe weather will be across NW half of the cwa this afternoon…with more isolated threat farther se. In general large hail and wind threat are supported by the high instability and adequate to strong shear. Tornado threat exists as well based on modest low-level helicity and shear values.
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