The synoptic setting for Wisconsin July 7th 2014 featured a small shortwave in a mid level trough over the upper Great Lakes. MUCAPE values ranged from 300 to 800 j/kg with 0-6 km shear around 25 to 30 kts. Scattered thunderstorms developed by noon. SCAN max hail values were from 0.50 inch to 0.75 inch. The CIMSS probabilities over severe were mainly in the single digit to around 25%, but many storms did have strong vertical and strong glaciation rates. One storm did approach severe criteria. Using FSI with the Donovan technique a narrow core of 50dbz did just reach severe criteria. The CIMSS Probability of severe was low at 49% , with the MESH value around 0.50 inch, giving confidence that the storm was not severe.
-Steve Hentz
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