Spike in ProbSevere – ?? as to why?

There was a noticeable spike in ProbSevere in LMK – between 1938UTC (6%) and 1940UTC (66%) then back down to 7% at 1950UTC.  Satellite rates were n/a – and the KLVX radar was in near optimal sampling distance (50 nm) from the storm of interest.

So – we are unsure why the ProbSevere spiked?  This would be a good example to pose to the developers.  I attached the 1938 and 1940Z images below.

- MF

*** John Cintineo on June 4, 2014 at 3:22 pm said: ***

The MESH increase from 0.22″ to 0.88″ over that 2 minute span caused the jump in probability to 66%. The increase in probability may also have been accentuated based on the fairly favorable environment (i.e., it’s the coincidence of largish MESH in a primed environment, in this case).
-ProbSevere co-developer