Interestingly, today the prob severe with the large MCS that produced lots of storm reports including wind gusts to over 50 knots, and enough lightning to start fires, was not that helpful. I have circled a bow echo moving into GA from AL and also a line near the HTX radar (This storm was quite severe with high winds extreme lightning). OT top detection and flash extent density and light jump all worked well and were valuable members of the severe warn decision tree.
Not the case for prob severe, which could lead the forecaster to hold off on a warning if they overvalued it. I have used prob severe all week and had growing confidence in it for storm trends etc., but this is a lesson learned to consider its limitations.
D Satterfield 2251Z 5 June 2014
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