2100Z High Risk Day 3 June. NSSL WRF Comments

NSSL WRF has some 2-3 hour temporal errors over WEST NB this afternoon. The reason seems to be slow heating due to a model forecast showing a thick cirrus shield over the area. There was a minor shield of cirrus but it moved east and vis satellite showed strong heating by late morning in the area. Convection developed well ahead of  the NSSL WRF forecast due this cirrus impacting the heating and thus the forecast going forward. A great example of using a close analysis of synthetic satellite imagery to adjust  and evaluate model output.

images below from 14 Z and 23Z 23Z on top.

D. Satterfield from WBOC Salisbury,MD