Monday, May 12, 2014 Mike Smith
Two situations worthy of note:
I “issued” a special weather statement for Winnebago Co. At
2:47pm for 3/4 inch hail and gusts to 40 kts. Using ONLY surface obs and
1-minute satellite data.
At 2:59pm, I issued a severe thunderstorm storm warning for
the same county, based on a Fujita U with overshooting then collapsing top in
1-minute data.
NWS issued severe at 2:56pm (unknown to me). Both warnings
verified with 1.75” and 2.0” hail reports.
I observed a downburst south of Sullivan, WI and based on
the right moving cell, I thought the RFD would intensify at 4:12pm for Walworth
Co. Predicted 55 kt and 2” hail. Unknown if it verified.
The right mover got more pronounced and at 4:22pm, I issued
a tornado warning for the southeast third of Walworth Co. This was due to the
wrapping pattern of the outflow air (into RFD), the 1-minute satellite U and
collapsing top, the persistent right movement and high spectrum width in the
inflow. NWS issued a tornado warning for the same area at 4:45pm. While a
pronounced hook formed, it never quite formed a tight couplet.
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