Tuesday 2030Z – NearCast Analysis

This post shows how the Nearcast model did well in depicting a weak north/northwest moving boundary that initiated convection in southwestern WV.  In a rather “pulsey” environment, the ability to pick out this boundary aided in confidence as to where convection was going to form.  Definitely a good tool to use in conditions where forcing is subtle and there is uncertainty on location on CI.

-Deitsch

Here is the 2030Z forecast from the 20z Nearcast model. White line represents a weak boundary

Here is the same image with current radar overlaid.