Storms firing in southern Kansas

While not within the OUN WFO, EWP forecasters noticed a storm in southern Kansas developing as observed by the KTLX radar.  The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model probability jumped to 74% at 2158 UTC with strong vertical growth rates and increasing MRMS MESH values (Figure 1).  The probabilities continued to increase and eventually the NWS Wichita office issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 2211 UTC 7 May 2014 (13 minutes after the probabilities increased to 74% (first time above 50%)) and was at 96% when the warning was issued.

Figure 1.  Animation of NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere, 0.5 degree KTLX reflectivity and NWS warnings valid 2158 - 2112 UTC 7 May 2014.

-Sieglaff