With the fast and furious pace of severe weather over the Central US today some posts need to be condensed. Below is an image of three severe storms over Colorado--with storms of interest labeled with 'A', 'B', and 'C'.
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| Figure 1. NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMR composite reflectivity at 2044 UTC 7 May 2014. Storms of interest are marked with yellow A,B, and C. |
The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model had probabilities in excess of 50% with varying lead-time for these storms. The first ProbSevere > 50% for these storms occurred at 2020, 2024, and 2034 UTC and the first NWS warnings on these storms occurred at 2101, 2026, and 2055 UTC, respectively (A, B, C), which translates into 41, 2, and 21 minutes of lead-time.
-Sieglaff
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