Severe convection firing near EWP WFOs

Strong thunderstorms have developed this afternoon just west of the DMX EWP domain along the dryline associated with low pressure center over the Northern Plains.  The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere depicted a storm near Sioux Falls, SD with strong satellite growth rates, a favorable environment and radar estimated hail size increasing with time (Figure 1).  The ProbSevere model generated probabilities in excess of 50% at 2006 UTC.  The NWS Sioux Falls WFO issued a severe thunderstorm warning on this storm at 2025 UTC, when the ProbSevere value was 91%.  As more storms develop and evolve along the dryline further south, more updates will be made.

Figure 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 2004 - 2024 UTC 8 May 2014.

-Sieglaff