ProbSevere seems to again be underestimating the severe potential and expected hail size. The environment was characterized with low topped severe storms with mid/upper trough overhead. The 12Z LZK sounding is below as the last image.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
ProbSevere Underestimates Storm in N AR on May 15
The storm below produced golf ball size hail (around 1.75 in diameter) and had 50 dBZ up to 31157 ft MSL from SRX radar (114 nm to the west southwest). ProbSevere only indicated 13% for severe with 1049 J/kg, 25.4 kt of EBShear, and 0.60 in MESH. The lack of nearby radar data with the LZK (Little Rock) WSR-88D being inoperable may have significantly impacted the ProbSevere algorithm.
ProbSevere seems to again be underestimating the severe potential and expected hail size. The environment was characterized with low topped severe storms with mid/upper trough overhead. The 12Z LZK sounding is below as the last image.
ProbSevere seems to again be underestimating the severe potential and expected hail size. The environment was characterized with low topped severe storms with mid/upper trough overhead. The 12Z LZK sounding is below as the last image.
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