The ProbSevere Model indicated an 83% probability of a
severe storm within an environment of 2968 J/Kg of MUCAPE and 34.6 kts of
EBShear at 2020Z. It also indicated MESH of 1.07inch at this time. The
following 2-minute resolution updates continued to show 80+% prob and 1 inch+
MESH as the storm tracked northeast from the NE Missouri/SW Iowa border into SW
Iowa except for one frame at 2028z where it showed a 64% prob. WFO DMX issued a
SVR at 2037z. ProbSevere may have helped give up to 17 minutes additional lead
time if the warning was issued once the ProbSevere crossed above 80%. At the
time of this post there were not yet any confirmed hail
reports.
Visible satellite data started to show a resemblance of an
enhanced updraft on this storm at 2015z with a developing anvil and anvil
shadowing at 2025z. SRSOR VIS data was
missing between 2011z and 2030z so had to use conventional visible images for
the attached screen captures.
Shawn Smith
EDIT: Missing GOES-14 SRSOR images were due to "daily housekeeping" - BL
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