ProbSevere lining up with experimental warnings

High ProbSevere values (> 75%) are evident on a number of storms along the cold front/stationary boundary near the IA/WI/IL nexus. These storms largely had moderate-degree satellite growth rates in an environment characterized by 2400 J/kg of MUCAPE and 50 kts of effective shear. Large MESH also became apparent, contributing to the high probabilities of severe. The moderate satellite growth rates occurred during a 30-min scan gap from GOES-East. The growth rates likely would have been labeled "strong" if the temporal resolution was better. Despite this, lead times to first NWS warnings were between 0 and 16 minutes on these storms, measured from a ProbSevere value of 50%.

These experimental warnings from the HWT forecasters in Davenport, IA, corresponded well with the storms with large ProbSevere values, increasing user confidence. Multiple hail reports have been recorded, including 2" diameter hail.

-Cintineo