ProbSevere and Severe Convection along Texas Dryline

More active severe weather is beginning on Wednesday afternoon.  A thunderstorm developed in the northern San Angelo, Texas CWA.  The developing storm was in a favorable environment, exhibited strong normalized vertical cloud growth rates and strong glaciation rates.  The rapid development of this storm resulted in the initial ProbSevere values of 50% at 1914 UTC 7 May 2014 (due to favorable environment and GOES-EAST RSO scanning, capturing the satellite growth of this storm faster than what would have been in routine GOES-EAST scan mode).  The ProbSevere increased to 99% by 1930 UTC as the precipitation core and MRMS MESH values increased.  The San Angelo WFO issued a severe thunderstorm warning for this storm at 1945 UTC--29 minutes after the first ProbSevere value in excess of 50%.

Figure 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and KFDR 0.5 degree reflectivity valid 1914-1945 UTC 7 May 2014.  The NWS severe and tornado warning polygons are also included.  The text read out is for the storm of interest.

EWP forecasters have been looking at other testbed products largely in this region, but they have been monitoring the ProbSevere and were pleased to see high probabilities early on in this storm.  The first severe report with this storm occurred at 2020 UTC 7 May 2014--half dollar sized hail in Baylor county, Texas.

-Sieglaff