Northeast convection

We're operating in Sterling, Virginia, to begin today, but storms fired in Pennsylvania and New York before our shift began. The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model was able to pick up on some of these storms. We can see a cluster of storms below, in Pennsylvania. The featured storm (with the scroll-over) exceeded 50% probability of severe when moderate to strong satellite growth rates were observed (17:54 UTC). The storm was warned by the NWS at 18:08 UTC, when the probability of severe was 97%. A storm to the northwest fluctuated in the 20-35% range before being warned by the NWS. The ProbSevere value then jumped to about 65% soon after the warning. This shows that ProbSevere may give increased confidence and lead time to some storms --- not every storm.

-Cintineo/Sieglaff