New storms developing over central Texas

While mature supercells ebb and flow over the KOUN and KCYS/KBOU EWP WFOs, new convection was developing along the dryline in the San Angelo, Texas WFO.  Given the goals of the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model of providing the probability a storm will first produce severe in the following 60 minutes (although EWP participants are noting utility of the ProbSevere model for supercell maintenance/severe threat as the model still uses NWP and radar information for those storms), the developing storms further south have become of more interest.

A developing storm exhibited strong vertical growth rates and strong glaciation rates within a favorable environment.  The ProbSevere model had increasing probabilities associated with storm, exceeding 50% at 2242 UTC 7 May 2014 (Figure 1) with further increase up to 97% when the NWS in San Angelo issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 2257 UTC 7 May 2014--15 minutes after the ProbSevere values jumped above 50%.

Figure 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere, MRMS composite reflectivity, and NWS severe thunderstorm warnings valid 2242 - 2257 UTC 7 May 2014.

-Sieglaff