Hagerstown, MD

A storm that developed in southcentral PA had a ProbSevere value of 72%, with moderate satellite growth and nearly 1" of MESH at 18:36 UTC. The probability of severe fluctuated to 45-50%, and then came back up to around 80%. An NWS warning was issued on this storm at 18:57 UTC. Severe hail and wind reports were recorded at 19:02 UTC, in Hagerstown, MD.

When speaking with a forecaster, she noted that she liked to see some sustained signal (several scans of high ProbSevere) before issuing a warning. This underscores that perhaps a forecaster shouldn't necessarily issue a warning as soon as there is a high probability, but that they should perhaps take notice and interrogate the storm further.

-Cintineo