Thursday, May 15, 2014

Forecaster thoughts on how to use ProbSevere

A question was posed to the forecasters today: "How would you use a product like ProbSevere in your warning decision process?"

A common response was that the product is unobtrusive and readily overlaid radar data (all tilts or other radar products). Having a quick look at the CAPE, shear, MESH, and satellite growth rates with a simple scroll-over has been helpful.  ProbSevere can give forecasters a brief overview of which storms to watch and consider more carefully. It seems to have the best utility when considering large hail, and may struggle in environments conducive to low-top storms. The satellite growth rates have helped somewhat this week, highlighting storms before robust radar is present, but may have more utility in rapidly growing storms.

-Cintineo

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