The following images depicted the expansion in overshooting
tops depicted by the CIMMS Auto Overshooting Tops Detection Algorithm 2015 to
2045 UTC May 12 across southern Iowa.
The first image had a small red blob in southwest Davis
county at 2015 UTC, which greatly enlarged in area by 2025 UTC in the second
image. By 2030 UTC in the third image,
the area split up into three blobs. By
2037 UTC, the fourth image indicated four blobs with the two blobs to the
northeast representing the fastest growth and expansion of the storm. By 2045 UTC, the last image, three blobs were
with this storm, possibly indicated that storm was intensifying or at least
maintaining intensity.
A SVR was issued for Van Buren county, on the southeast part
of the enclosed circular area, with the overshooting tops blobs at 2037
UTC. A 60 mph gust along with heavy
rainfall and low visibility was observed in the warned area at 2127 UTC. The
great expansion and splitting of blobs indicated by the Auto Overshooting Top
Detection Algorithm could have increased SVR lead time another 10-30 minutes.
Michael Scotten
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