Forecasters are focusing in on two areas this afternoon, one being in the Cheyenne CWA, and the other across Davenport, IA. Convection was already developing in the Cheyenne CWA by the time forecasters got on their shift, so focus quickly shifted to the other Experimental products. However, convection developed later over the Davenport CWA, which the CI product picked up on, but do to the 30 minute full disk scan at 2045 UTC, much of the convection was unfortunately missed. A benefit of GOES-R is the increased temporal resolution which will eliminate these large time gaps between satellite images. Below are two time stamps of the CI product (2045 UTC and 2115 UTC) along with two MRMS images of -10 C reflectivity (the reflectivity which the GOES-R CI product is validated against).
At 2045 UTC, the CI product is forecasting 50-60 percent probabilities of convection developing along a boundary sagging south into Iowa. 15 minutes later at 2100 UTC, the first 35 dBZ radar echoes were seen in the reflectivity data. 2045 UTC is a full disk scan for GOES, so the next available satellite scan was at 2115 UTC. In the meantime convection continued to develop which the CI product missed because of the 30 minute scan, but did capture another area of 60 percent development which continued into a storm that was severe thunderstorm warned. Lead time was minimal of ~3 minutes due to the large 30 minute gap.
 |
| GOES-R CI at 2045 UTC |
 |
| 2100 UTC MRMS -10 C reflectivity |
 |
| 2115 UTC GOES-R CI product |
 |
| 2118 UTC MRMS -10 C reflectivity |
No comments:
Post a Comment