Cold front / outflow boundary convection

Storms have been firing along a cold front and some outflow boundaries from yesterday's and today's convection, over the Midwest U.S. (IL/IN/OH).

Figure 1 shows the official NWS warnings, as of 3:02 PM.

Figure 1: NWS warnings

Figure 2 shows the ProbSevere contours, overlaid MRMS composite reflectivity (semi-transparent) and GOES-East visible imagery. Most of these storms exhibited strong satellite growth before evolving into several larger cloud masses. The strong ProbSevere values (in pink, from 70-100% probability of severe) correspond quite well with current NWS warnings. Many storms exhibited 10-20 minutes of lead time to initial warnings, measured from the 50% threshold. The storms in Ohio and Indiana have had hail reports between 1" and 1.75", so far.

Figure 2: ProbSevere over IL/IN/OH

-Cintineo