Nearcasting and High Based Thunderstorms

As mentioned a bit earlier in a post, the NRE product showed enhanced chances for convection all the way to the Lubbock area. Especially the theta-e difference product placed the tongue of mid-level unstable air just where high based thunderstorms finally evolved. Surface dewpoints in the mid 30s and temperatures in the low 90s point to elevated and high based thunderstorms with a distinct downburst/ heatburst? risk. The product helped a lot to focus on the anticipated area of initiation. LAPS also did a great job in developing the elevated thunderstorm activity both in space and time.

051513 2300 UTC Vertical Theta-E Difference (top left), Sustained Convection Index (top right), CAPE (bottom left),  and Visible Imagery (top right)

Helge