A cluster of storms continues ahead of a diffuse surface boundary located across west-central North Carolina into southwest Virginia. Convergence continues to be the primary convective driver in association with an upper-level low continuing to rotate across eastern Tennessee.
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| Current radar imagery overlaid with surface analysis |
Cold temperatures aloft, as shown by H50 temperatures near -20C, and moderately steep lapse rates will continue to support a marginal threat for large hail through 01Z. Near-surface instability will decrease in the next couple of hours as diurnal heating comes to an end and low-level theta-e values decrease as depicted by the CIMSS Nearcast tool. Tend to side with simulated satellite imagery showing storms coming to an end by 03Z across the Blacksburg County Warning Area.
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| Nearcasting showing decreasing instability this evening |
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| Simulated Imagery at 03Z as storms come to an end |
Hampshire/Guseman
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