Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
While waiting for deep convection to fire, I decided to study each
CTC detection < -10C/15min beginning with data from 1815 UTC, about
when shallow convection was developing over the Nrn NM front range.
Between 1815 and 2045 UTC, I logged 8 CTC detections < -10C/15min.
The first 4, between 1830 and 1915 UTC had no reflectivity > 35 dBZ
develop within 90 minutes of the detection. The fifth detection at 1930
UTC over NW Colfax had a -18C/15min value and 5-10 minutes later showed
composite reflectivity around 40 dBZ but never intensified further.
Still awaiting the 90 minute window for any reflectivity or MESH > 1″
to develop near the detection.
Caveats to any conclusion is that this mini-mini-study is soley
dependent on the environment today over northeast NM. The CTC algorithm
may work better in more favorable environments for deep convection.
No comments:
Post a Comment