Although we are in AMA, we took a look at the CTC in NM, since that area has seen significant CTC signals over the last week. Once again, we are seeing strong CTC signals off the terrain in NM with little or no convective development. Here are a series of 3 signals in the same place over several hours. Take home point — this is a great product, however forecasters need to know their environment to use this product in enhanced warning ops and beware of times that the convection is being forced by the terrain. Case in point, although the CTC product showed -20->-25c/15min cooling values over higher terrain areas in SE NM, the sfc dwpts were in the teens and lower 20s. Almost no way convection could develop with this dry air.
2015z:
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