Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
Recall WFO Amarillo’s prior post referring to the OUNWRF’s convective
initiation in the SW parts of the CWA by around 2130Z? Let’s take a
look at what actually happened.
4-panel Reflectivity from KAMA at 2205Z. A few weak showers have
developed in the SW, but overall convective development has been slow
and weak.
Looks like the OUNWRF was a bit too quick to develop convection over WFO
AMA. We did see some very weak Cloud Top Cooling (CTC) on the order of
nearly ~4C/15min near the Oldham/Deaf Smith county line for a brief
period but this diminished quickly. Notice that the UAH Convective
Initiation (CI) in the top left panel showed that the potential for
development was elsewhere. Note…these initial showers which triggered
the weak CTC rates weakened pretty rapidly.
UAH CI (top left panel) and CIMSS CTC (top right panel) at 2145Z. The
CTC indicated was very weak and the showers weakened quickly.
It appears the OUNWRF may have been a bit too bullish on convective
development ahead of the activity moving out of New Mexico in the NW
flow aloft this evening, but stay tuned.
No comments:
Post a Comment