The more I look at these products, the more I’m convinced they work very well in tandem with each other. Given an environment that supports convective growth, a strong UAH-CI signal (upper image, top left panel) typically precedes a strong UW-CTC signal (middle image, top right panel). In this case, the strong UAH-CI signal (1615 UTC) preceded the UW-CTC signal (1645 UTC) by about 30 minutes. By 1715-1730 UTC, 30-45 minutes later, deep-moist convection did indeed form as evidenced by the numerous CG strikes (bottom image, bottom left panel). We’ve seen this all week…UAH-CI gives us a heads up that general convection is initially building, then a short time later UW-CTC typically picks up on the stronger convection building. Given a strong cap isn’t present and instability is sufficient, deep-moist convection typically develops 30-60 minutes thereafter.
1615 UTC. Notice the 70% UAH-CI signal in the top left panel.
1645 UTC...30 minutes later. Notice strong cloud-top-cooling signal in the UW-CTC product (top right panel).
1715-1730 UTC...30-45 minutes later. Deep-moist convection did indeed
develop in the vicinity of aforementioned CI/CTC signals, as evidenced
by numerous CG lightning strikes (bottom left panel).
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