Forecaster comments from the EWP blog...
Nearcast data shows favorable conditions for convective initiation
and maintenance through mid afternoon. The first 2 images of nearcast
at 19Z and 20Z show good theta-e values (yellows) at 780 mb (upper left)
with a slightly cooler drier environment aloft (greens) at 500 mb
(lower left). Bright greens over central and eastern portions of JAX
area support a favorable convective environment. This analysis
combined with soundings and other environment data are supportive of
small hail with storms early this afternoon.
19Z:
20Z:
In the later 2 images below at 21Z and 22Z, the environment becomes
less favorable for convection as we can see less of a threat of
convection as the brighter yellows at 780 mb (upper left) begin to move
off shore (a cold front enters the area). Also at 500 mb (lower left),
brighter yellows are observed moving into JAX central and eastern
portions of the area indicating more warm/moist mid levels which would
be less supportive of small hail and more supportive of heavy rainers
given the environment conditions. The theta-e difference (lower right)
depicts most unstable/moist environment (bright greens) moving off shore
as well.
21Z:
22Z:
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