Friday, May 18, 2012

EWP end of week 2 debrief

Nearcast
- "Did a good job over FL… the gradient of the theta-e difference really lit up when a boundary hit it."
- "Highlighted well where you had a minima in instability over both ends of the CWA... had confidence that you would have the whole area light up."
- Archive case... "Saw a clearly defined dryline which helped us pick out where the convection was going to occur that day."
- "This CAPE product holds a lot of promise... I don't know about accuracy, but qualitatively it was highlighting the areas of interest."
- "Only having two layers is a drawback for now."
- "I would think that the more negative values would be unstable... That ended up being a source of great confusion for the first day because of what I looked at in the training... having that much variation hurt."
- "Warmer colors would intuitively seem to me as unstable."

SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- "Several times the CI worked as it was supposed to, then you would get a strong CTC signal getting up towards -40 C/15 mins... I think it would be a really useful tool in a marine environment."
- "CI started to have a breakup of the signals, less random values popping up... you could see a transition of the signals."
- Archive case... "Saw some CTC hits late on in the event when we expected CI to be over... did see a rapid ramp up in the ongoing storms immediately after on radar."
- "The UAH CI strength of signal is a huge improvement... when I was using it with the CTC, I had to stop myself from comparing it to the signals in CTC because they didn't always match up."
- "Relating the stronger cooling rate to severe weather... I don't have a strong opinion one way or another... but the way it was presented to me I found myself really paying more attention to those stronger CTCs."
- "The CI products is something we are hoping to pull into the pilot project."

Simulated Satellite Imagery
- "Forecasters are just going to have to get used to looking at that... getting used to the display of the data... less blow off from your cloud tops that doesn't match actual satellite data... it's just going to take time to get used to what you're looking at, but it does have an amazing ability to show convection... I think it's a great tool."
- "Useful as a planning tool... trying to figure out where stuff is going to form, the location ended up being spot on."
- "I wonder a little bit would we have made the same decisions just looking at model QPF or other model fields... it was an accessible format being similar to satellite data... does that make it more believable?"
- "The training didn't do an effective job in explaining the difference between the water vapor imagery... only after I came here and talked to Chris did I understand that it was actually a different channel than what we currently have on GOES."
- "I did have some reservations that the color scales looking just like observed data."
- "I can see the channel difference being very useful in briefing non-mets about where the dry/moist air is and it's a quick way to pick out those areas."
- "It would be nice to get this stuff in GFE for sky cover."

PGLM
- "Signals were very weak over the MLB area, didn't really have much impact on decision making for this event."
- "I would like some more training on what we should be looking at in regards to jumps and relating that to what we were seeing on the ground."
- "I think it will be huge when we have it everywhere from a satellite perspective."
- "From a severe weather perspective, it was hard to tell what it was showing me."

Overall / Training
- "What deserves my increased attention is such a challenge to determine when you have to triage data in a warning environment... having some sort of quantifiable way to determine what deserves my attention would be nice to have."
- When under pressure and at first glance of new products... forecasters mentioned that they immediately went to 'warn on red' for the colors in the products... which wasn't the case for some of the 3DVAR and Nearcast products.  Forecasters mentioned it took them some time to remember 'no wait, we need a value of X' and go back and re-evaluate the product's output.
- "An 'all-tilts' display method for 3D gridded data in AWIPS II would be extremely useful."
- "Anything we've seen this week we would like to pull into the pilot project."
- "It was an excellent idea to have the training day before we arrived in the HWT."
- "If we had the training available a little earlier, it would have helped."
- "The training material was a good amount for an 8-hour shift... although the amount in the WES was a little problematic to load."
- "A quick reference guide for the training would have been helpful."
- "We needed that amount of training, but by the end of the day doing it all at once I was left exhausted."

1 comment:

  1. Regarding the Simulated Satellite Imagery, its most useful aspect is as a model evaluation tool, as opposed to a direct tool for Convective Initiation. In the several hours before storms form, if the cloud and shortwave locations in the simulated imagery appear to match the GOES locations, then one should have higher confidence in the NSSL WRF forecast CI locations. But if the timing or location of those features is off, one should have lower confidence in the remaining NSSL WRF forecast times.

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