EWP daily debrief 5/16

Below is some feedback gathered from today's daily debrief of the EWP forecasters...

SATCAST / UW Cloud-top cooling
- For Davenport, IA CWA... "The strength of signal never really got above yellow (~ 60-70%)... the rest were pretty marginal... there were a few interesting CTC signals up to -22 C/15min... the ones that flagged the strongest would shift around, so it was tough to get a feel for the lead time or false alarms.  The CTC signals would appear once and then go away, so it was hard to get some continuity... generally they were -10 to -15 C/15 mins... so that fit our expectation that it wasn't a very favorable environment for severe weather... collectively they both handled the situation well, but if you handle it on a case by case basis it would have been tougher to judge."
- For the Melbourne, FL CWA... "The two CI hits we had in the red (mid 90s %) had about a 24 minute lead time on when it showed up well on radar and turned out to be the stronger storms.  The CTC didn't get the second storm, but the CI did, and that was the one that had the tornado.  The higher CI probabilities really helped me tell that the storms were intensifying versus what I could already tell on visible."
- "One of the interesting challenges with these CI/CTC algorithms... we've had plenty of training on how these products work, but there are still those moments when we're trying to figure out why something didn't happen... that's something that will come with time and more use."

Nearcast
- For Davenport, IA  CWA... "The theta-e difference was a pretty good indicator that it was going to be a pretty marginal day."
- "The theta-e difference picked up nicely on the fact that there were stronger signals in N. MI and that correlated well to the stronger storms"

PGLM
- For the Melbourne, FL CWA... "It showed some signals, but I'm not sure it would have had much of a role in my warning process yesterday."
- "Another application would be where there isn't much radar data... if I was out west forecasting for a fire where there was no radar coverage, it would be very useful in letting people know where the lightning was."
- "From an aviation perspective, especially with a situation where there is a line of storms, this would be very useful in increasing situational awareness."
- "Lightning could have interesting heavy rain/flash flood impacts as well."