Monday, May 7, 2012

EM Discussion @ 21Z

Experimental Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) from EWP blog...

Location: Latest guidance supports continued development of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across McColloch, San Saba, Llano, San Saba and Mason counties.

Impacts:  primary impact will be large hail and damaging winds.  there is still potential for isolated tornadoes.

Met discussion:  OUNWRF showed evidence of moisture convergence on the h8/h7 wind and theta E H8-7 layer; MRMS Max hail size estimated 1.5″ hail;  UAH CI strength of signal showed 80-100 values over the areas of favorable moisture convergence; CI-CTC projected new development over Llano county.

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