Another CTC success case in the OAX CWA

Forecasters shifted their domain of interest to the OAX CWA for the potential of severe convection in the area.  Convection initiated around 2145 UTC with the UW CTC product exhibiting strong cooling for the cu popping up in the area.  The cooling rate was ~-20K/15 min (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1

About an hour later at 2244 UTC, the cell that the CTC product flagged with the strong cooling rate produced a MESH value of 1.89" (see Fig. 2).   Again, good lead time over the potential of severe hail.

Fig. 2