Simulated ABI Radiances Compared to GOES Observations

This week there is no EWP running so all support is geared towards the EFP. Early Tuesday on the CI desk of EFP, the NSSL-WRF simulated ABI radiances were compared to the current GOES observations for judging the timing/placement of the upper level vorticity maxima/upper level dry intrusion over the Central US, as well as impact of cloud cover on convective intiation forecasts over the western Great Lakes.

Below are the 15 UTC simulated ABI brightness temperatures (top) and observed GOES brightness temperatures (bottom). The consensus of the forecasters on the CI desk was the NSSL-WRF had excellent placement of the upper level vorticity as depicted by the water vapor channels. On the other hand, the NSSL-WRF struggled to capture the intensity and magnitude of a band of clouds and decaying convection over the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes. The images below show the GOES observed clouds are much more expansive and have colder brightness temperatures than the simulated ABI clouds from the NSSL-WRF. Discussion is ongoing on how these clouds will impact convective initiation timing and location later today.







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