EWP NWS forecasters have begun real-time operations within the HWT. We are focusing on the UWCI, UAH CI, and Nearcast products over the domain waiting for convection to develop along a dryline extending from central OK down across the Red River. An area of cumulus clouds have begun to form along the dryline and we are waiting for further development. An area of thin cirrus (our worst enemy) is moving in rapidly from NM and will eventually impede upon our ability to detect CI from the satellite based products (see image below). We are hoping that CI will occur prior to the cirrus entering the area. Below is an example of what we are looking at, with the UWCI and ice cloud mask overlaid on visible satellite imagery. A false alarm has occurred due to the thin cirrus being misclassified by the cloud typing algorithm and created a false cooling event as it passed over land.
The EFP is also monitoring CI on the CI desk and have been looking at the Nearcast product extensively over the area. They have noticed that the Nearcast has been showing a band of moisture and increased instability potential aligning itself with the dryline and then being advected quickly east. They are concerned that if this area of moisture and instability moves too far east before CI occurs that the potential for any severe convection will be limited. I explained to them that the RUC winds may not be truly representative of what will really happen and to monitor the new forecast that came in at the top of the hour to see if this trend continues.
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