Examining NSSL-WRF simulated imagery/lightning

Observed (top) and simulated NSSL-WRF (bottom) WV imagery for 1300 UTC on 24 May 2011.
This morning EFP forecasters and scientists examined the simulated satellite imagery and lightning threat products from the NSSL-WRF. One of the most useful aspects of creating simulated satellite imagery from a model is the ability to compare the output directly to observed satellite imagery to determine model performance, as well as being able to have a one-stop 3-D representation of the model produced atmosphere. At 1300 UTC we matched the simulated GOES-R band 9 (6.95 micron) to the observed GOES-13 WV channel to determine model performance for the day. As you see from the images above, the model atmosphere and the observed atmosphere are very similar. The model correctly identifies an MCS over N. KS and on the KY/TN border. It should be noted that the model's simulated cloud tops generally appear to be smaller and less extensive with the cirrus shields. The position of the mid-level jet streak is also very similar, as seen in the deeper red colors extending from AZ/NM/TX panhandle.

NSSL-WRF simulated lightning threat for 2000 UTC (top) and 0000 UTC (bottom) for 24 May 2011
The NSSL-WRF initiates storms between 1900-2000 UTC along the OK/KS border. The simulated lightning threat imagery (seen above) provided by Bill McCaul (USRA) provides us with an estimation of total lightning flashes. At 2000 UTC (top most image), we see the first isolated storm along the border, with total flashes per square kilometer per 5 minutes reaching a value of 5. At 0000 UTC (bottom most image), we can see the extent of the storms across most of OK along the dryline. At this time we can see flash rate values reaching 12 and can start to get an idea of storm tracks.

NSSL-WRF simulated GOES-R low- (top), mid- (center), and high-level (bottom) WV imagery for 0000 UTC on 24 May 2011.
As we continue through time past initiation, we can take a look at the three GOES-R WV channels produced from the NSSL-WRF imagery. Each channel peaks at a different level in the atmosphere, essentially providing us with 3 layers of water vapor measurements. Currently unavailable on our operational GOES satellite, this will be available with GOES-R and we can simulated it using numerical models. What is particularly interesting in this imagery at this forecast time is the presence of a very strong dry signature (red colors) extending from the TX panhandle into central OK in the high-level water vapor (bottom image above). This is an indication of very strong mid-level jet streak. This signature is present in the lower level WV images as well.