Using simulated satellite to evaluate model performance

Observed (left) and simulated (right) WV imagery at 1300 UTC on 2 June 2010
During today's morning forecast discussion in the EFP the participants talked about how the 00Z deterministic model runs were of little help to them in making their early morning forecasts. One way that they discussed how this was discovered was by using the simulated satellite imagery provided by the 00Z NSSL-WRF and comparing the simulated imagery to that of reality. They noticed that the model imagery did not accurately describe the atmosphere at the current time see images above) and thus they then had to rely heavily on observed data of ongoing storms and extrapolate what could happen in the future to make their forecasts. This brings up a good point that should be remembered. When the models fail... where do you go?