As part of the morning EFP session, we took a look back at yesterday's severe weather forecast. The domain was centered over State College, PA. Many of the model guidance products pointed toward Pennsylvania as a region for possible severe weather. However, as can be seen in the visible GOES-East image above (right), low clouds were present across the eastern part of the state, and the 15Z analyzed SBCAPE showed positive values only where solar insolation had occurred. The image on the left shows the simulated 10.35 micron band (from the NSSL WRF-ARW) also at 15Z, along with the model's SBCAPE field. Note that the model correctly places the low clouds in eastern Pennsylvania, but has CAPE values a bit too high in western PA.
The images above show the same fields, except valid at 22Z. Some convection had begun to fire in the unstable region in central PA, and the model also showed convection in this area. In this case, the WRF seemed to perform quite well with the evolution of afternoon convection. However, its overprediction of the instability lead to the model storms being a bit too strong. No severe weather reports came out of Pennsylvania.
As part of the morning EFP session, we took a look back at yesterday's severe weather forecast. The domain was centered over State College, PA. Many of the model guidance products pointed toward Pennsylvania as a region for possible severe weather. However, as can be seen in the visible GOES-East image above (right), low clouds were present across the eastern part of the state, and the 15Z analyzed SBCAPE showed positive values only where solar insolation had occurred. The image on the left shows the simulated 10.35 micron band (from the NSSL WRF-ARW) also at 15Z, along with the model's SBCAPE field. Note that the model correctly places the low clouds in eastern Pennsylvania, but has CAPE values a bit too high in western PA.
The images above show the same fields, except valid at 22Z. Some convection had begun to fire in the unstable region in central PA, and the model also showed convection in this area. In this case, the WRF seemed to perform quite well with the evolution of afternoon convection. However, its overprediction of the instability lead to the model storms being a bit too strong. No severe weather reports came out of Pennsylvania.
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