The severe hail probability product was examined this morning to determine what characteristics of what it showed following yesterday's widespread severe weather across most of the country. We noticed that the product performed well in forecasting the occurrence of severe hail over IA/IL/WI/AR earlier in the day, with probabilities exceeding 2% hours in advance of severe hail reported on the ground. Along the dryline in NM/TX/CO/KS toward the evening, the probabilities also were seen 1-2 hours in advance of severe hail reported on the ground, including one report of 3" along the CO/KS border. (see above images) The lead time slightly decreased along the dryline region where storm growth was much more explosive. This helps explain the decrease in lead time over this region as the product may not be able to detect these storms as far in advance.
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