Forecasters monitoring consistent overshoots during IOP

The Amarillo, TX forecaster group are monitoring consistent overshooting top detections above a storm slowly entering the southwest edge of their CWA (see image above)... They are preparing to issue warnings as soon as it enters. The consistency of the overshooting top detections are providing them with strong confidence that the storm is continuing to maintain its intense updraft and thus telling them that it is still severe. The magnitude of the overshooting tops, or difference between the temperature of the overshooting top relative to the cloud around it, has been slowly increasing from 4 K to above 9 K over the past few satellite scans. Note that these values may be diluted since the contours are smoothed, so the actual magnitudes are probably higher. Nonetheless, this may be saying that the updraft is strengthening. The forecasters are also noticing trends in the overshoot magnitude as severe weather occurs. There was a report of a tornado with this storm following the intensification, but that has yet to be verified. I mentioned that a total disappearance of the overshoot may indicate the occurrence of severe wind or hail at the surface as the updraft collapses.

The Pueblo, CO group have also been monitoring the overshooting top magnitudes, but for a different purpose. They have a cluster of storms and are using the overshoots to detect the regions of renewed intensification on satellite, since it is one large thick cirrus shield over the area and the radar signatures look somewhat similar.