Friday, June 12, 2015
2015 SPRING EXPERIMENT IS COMPLETE
The 2015 Spring Experiment which took place in the Hazardous Weather Testbed for 5 weeks between May 4 to June 12 is now complete. Feedback from the blog, survey, and daily discussions will be analyzed and organized into a final report to be made available this summer. Please come back in the future to view posts during future GOES-R demonstrations in the HWT!
Thursday, June 11, 2015
Week 5 Summary and Feedback (8-12 June 2015)
The final day of Week 5 and the 2015 Spring Experiment took us to the Boulder, Topeka, and Omaha CWA's. The Boulder group had ample opportunity to evaluate the PGLM total lightning products. As with the previous several days, the 1-min satellite imagery from GOES-14 was available over the areas of interest and utilized extensively by participants.
- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison
GOES-R LAP
- Best to pay attention to gradients, the absolute values weren’t that accurate (for CAPE)
- Higher temporal frequency will be appreciated in goesr era
- Various use cases (convective, flooding, winter, etc.) of how these products can be applied in operations would be helpful to see in training
NUCAPS
- Improve training to present how to use, include more information on editing lower levels, including info on how high to mix
- I prefer to look at rap, even though its model data, because it shows me the fine details that NUCAPS does not capture
- Fusing of all the sources is really the way to go, they should all be blended together, instead of having to use them all
GOES-R CI
- I liked using it this week, but I would want it to work better under thin cirrus
- I remember looking at it a few years ago, and it’s a lot better now than it was then. It provided useful information before event.
- When you get constant rapid scan, it will be available more timely, more often, which will certainly help
- Seeing it overlaid with more in awips would be great. I look at it on webpage now
- For cwsu it will be especially useful, seeing signals will lead me to start the alert.
ProbSevere
- It has its flaws, so people need to know these, must be in training.
- I could see us using that on air, people understand percentages
- I almost view it more as SA type tool; stick with base data as gold standard for warnings,
- On busy day, I could see it being useful, have it up on radar or sat, for SA
- Have something/fields to get at low-topped convection
- Perhaps regionalize probsevere – train dataset on a local area instead of whole country
- Storm motion information could help – eg. acceleration before wind damage
- Someway to prevent the merger with linear storms, perhaps track at higher dbz once storms mature.
- If polygon gets over a certain size, throw in a new threshold, pick out cores within line
- Dbz at a certain temperature level might be useful input
SRSOR and 1-min OTD
- TV viewers would love to look at that.
- Especially useful when debating on issuing another warning downstream, if you could see another updraft coming in, might help to issue or not
- Outflow boundary interaction could clearly be seen
- Low stratus movement, lake and ocean breezes.
- In san fran with stratus – It would help with aviation, timing of amendments knowing exactly where edge of stratus is asap is important
- I would see us using it all the time. West coast wild fires, any hazardous material.
- This could lead to more project ideas, discovering more ways to utilize data
- Want srsor all day every day
- Will always be necessary somewhere in the US
Lightning jump
- We were seeing very large sigma jumps.
- Showed significant jumps with strengthening storms
- More useful over high terrain, where radar coverage isn’t as good.
- I would like it to include a readout of the number of flashes that it jumped.
- Will be good to include this information in probsevere
- Area in cwa with bad radar coverage, something that is nationwide would be great, nice to see in these data void areas
PGLM
- Provides good SA, shows precisely when storms pulse up and down.
- Definitely will be helpful for DSS events. Someone deployed, they can track lightning activity
- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison
GOES-R LAP
- Best to pay attention to gradients, the absolute values weren’t that accurate (for CAPE)
- Higher temporal frequency will be appreciated in goesr era
- Various use cases (convective, flooding, winter, etc.) of how these products can be applied in operations would be helpful to see in training
NUCAPS
- Improve training to present how to use, include more information on editing lower levels, including info on how high to mix
- I prefer to look at rap, even though its model data, because it shows me the fine details that NUCAPS does not capture
- Fusing of all the sources is really the way to go, they should all be blended together, instead of having to use them all
GOES-R CI
- I liked using it this week, but I would want it to work better under thin cirrus
- I remember looking at it a few years ago, and it’s a lot better now than it was then. It provided useful information before event.
- When you get constant rapid scan, it will be available more timely, more often, which will certainly help
- Seeing it overlaid with more in awips would be great. I look at it on webpage now
- For cwsu it will be especially useful, seeing signals will lead me to start the alert.
ProbSevere
- It has its flaws, so people need to know these, must be in training.
- I could see us using that on air, people understand percentages
- I almost view it more as SA type tool; stick with base data as gold standard for warnings,
- On busy day, I could see it being useful, have it up on radar or sat, for SA
- Have something/fields to get at low-topped convection
- Perhaps regionalize probsevere – train dataset on a local area instead of whole country
- Storm motion information could help – eg. acceleration before wind damage
- Someway to prevent the merger with linear storms, perhaps track at higher dbz once storms mature.
- If polygon gets over a certain size, throw in a new threshold, pick out cores within line
- Dbz at a certain temperature level might be useful input
SRSOR and 1-min OTD
- TV viewers would love to look at that.
- Especially useful when debating on issuing another warning downstream, if you could see another updraft coming in, might help to issue or not
- Outflow boundary interaction could clearly be seen
- Low stratus movement, lake and ocean breezes.
- In san fran with stratus – It would help with aviation, timing of amendments knowing exactly where edge of stratus is asap is important
- I would see us using it all the time. West coast wild fires, any hazardous material.
- This could lead to more project ideas, discovering more ways to utilize data
- Want srsor all day every day
- Will always be necessary somewhere in the US
Lightning jump
- We were seeing very large sigma jumps.
- Showed significant jumps with strengthening storms
- More useful over high terrain, where radar coverage isn’t as good.
- I would like it to include a readout of the number of flashes that it jumped.
- Will be good to include this information in probsevere
- Area in cwa with bad radar coverage, something that is nationwide would be great, nice to see in these data void areas
PGLM
- Provides good SA, shows precisely when storms pulse up and down.
- Definitely will be helpful for DSS events. Someone deployed, they can track lightning activity
Combining SRSO and Radar Data
The high frequency satellite imagery enables the ability to better match the frequency of radar data and combine them to give a unique view in this case of the radar data near the ground and the top of the storm via satellite. In the following animations, you can see the supercell SE of PUX in feature following zoom mode in AWIPS. Evident are storm structure, outflow boundary, inflow, and anvil development and storm top outflow all in the same image. This helps verify the conceptual model of supercells. MrSnow/Shasta.
Click on the images to see the animation.
Click on the images to see the animation.
Evolution of outflow boundaries in SRSO vs standard visible imagery
Just to compare and contrast what GOES-R and SRSO offers compare to routine visible imagery is shown below. The SRSO loop contains 120 images while the standard imagery contains only 6 . There is so much more evident in the SRSO in terms of convective development and outflow boundaries and interactions with other cells not so easily seen or imagined in the standard imagery. Click on the images to see the animation. MrSnow/Shasta
NUCAPS soundings just in time
A nice clear field of view in was in the development region southeast of Denver. Based on the differences in CAPE analysis in the LAP, GFS, and RAP, the NUCAP sounding was available at the optimal time to check its vertical profile, observed and derived CAPE in the undisturbed environment where the storms were headed. This image below shows that clear area on the visible imagery vicinity KLHX La Junta, CO where the surface temp and dewpoint were 83/59. The unmodified NUCAPS sounding yielded about 1900 J/kg SBCAPE as the surface dewpoint was 60 but the temperature was much cooler than observed. However, modifying the sounding with the observed surface T/Td at KLHX, the resulted CAPE was over 2800 J/kg much higher than just about any other method. MrSnow/Shasta
LAP gets a bad RAP
Looked at the LAP CAPE output again today at 1800 UTC 11 June 2015 southeast of Den ver, CO. It did not seem to capture the magnitude of the CAPE. In the first image below the sampled 460 J/kg grid seems to represent where the satellite added information to the GFS background and agreed nicely with the GFS 6h first guess. The overall gradient and orientation seems pretty good as well.
The problem is that the CAPE seems very low when compared to the RAP analysis.
Given the strong supercell development, tend to believe the RAP vs the LAP analysis. The second image below shows the same sampled location in the LAP. That is overlaid with the RAP which is showing 1600 J/kg at 1800 UTC.
MrSnow/Shasta
The problem is that the CAPE seems very low when compared to the RAP analysis.
Given the strong supercell development, tend to believe the RAP vs the LAP analysis. The second image below shows the same sampled location in the LAP. That is overlaid with the RAP which is showing 1600 J/kg at 1800 UTC.
MrSnow/Shasta
Downstream SVR for Reno and beyond Charley
Lightning data steady state on time series. DVIL is a little low, but SRS showing another updraft with shadow in the area of the cell. Had a report earlier of pea size hail in Langdon, which was southeast of the core. ProbSevere indicated a mature storm with continued high values.
Integrating SRSO Visible imagery with 1 minute total lightning data
In the images below the SRSO 1 minute imagery and 1 minute total lightning data were integrated to provide a visualization/conceptualization of the evolution of the storms updraft location and distribution of cloud flashes (yellow circles) and cloud to ground strikes (dark blue +/-). We were able to save the editor display, open up the xml file in the localization perspective and change the frame count from 65 to 120 to get a longer loop. You can then open up the editor display for later use.
Also used the SRSO IR images, used the interpolate image on the imaging option to smooth out the IR. The Change Colormap option to adjust the color scale to better enhance the cold top of the storms to fit today’s situation. I also overlaid the GOES-R Pseudo Geostationary Lightning Mapper (PGLM) Surface Flash Extent Density product to monitor lightning along with the 1 minute ENTLN data.
Click on the images to see the animation. MrSnow/Shasta
Also used the SRSO IR images, used the interpolate image on the imaging option to smooth out the IR. The Change Colormap option to adjust the color scale to better enhance the cold top of the storms to fit today’s situation. I also overlaid the GOES-R Pseudo Geostationary Lightning Mapper (PGLM) Surface Flash Extent Density product to monitor lightning along with the 1 minute ENTLN data.
Click on the images to see the animation. MrSnow/Shasta
Strong PGLM surge leads to warning
A strong PGLM surge was noted just before issuing a warning. A strong to severe thunderstorm developed over the southern suburbs of Denver. The cell had a history of nickel sized hail over south Denver. An boost came in the form of an outflow boundary coming in behind the cell. A warning was issued. Unfortunately, it appears that the Lightning Jump algorithm was a no-show just before the warning was issued.
-Shasta/Mr. Snow
-Shasta/Mr. Snow
CI performing very well today in CO
Convective Initiation product (CI) correctly showed increasing values just south of the Denver Boulder area from 1600 to 1800 UTC 11 June 2015. Values increase from 36 to near 60% in the general vicinity of the storms that developed in the Pueblo, CO area. This gave about 30 minutes of lead time to the first lightning strikes around 1715Z. It would be nice to get CI output at 1-5 minute temporal resolution to match RSO/SRSO. We had outflow boundaries evident in the SRSO imagery but had to wait 15 minutes for CI updates. Below are a series of images as the storms were developing showing the CI, the MRMS Composite Reflectivity, Visible satellite, PGLM 6min summary, 0-200km Lighting Jump, 15minute ENI 8km interpolated lighting grid and cloud to ground strikes. The lightning jump showed up to 2 sigma jumps at 1729 UTC. MrSnow/Shasta.
- CI is/was available with RSO! - BL
- CI is/was available with RSO! - BL
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