NUCAPS Sounding at LBF shows MUCAPE 4000 J/kg

Checked NUCAPS sounding at 19Z just east of LBF and used T/Td of 89/66 to modify the surface and got around 4000 J/kg CAPE.  Initially NUCAPS near the surface was much too cool and dry (80/54), so the modification was necessary.   It did agree better with the SPC mesoanalysis and RAP which showed values over 3000 J/kg and much better than the LAP CAPE.  MrSnow/BT

Overshooting Tops Galore

Multiple severe thunderstorms in the Hastings CWA. The algorithm lines up very well with where overshooting tops are observed on the visible and with our current SVR Warnings.

-Shasta

Overshooting tops in IL

Picture below shows 5 overshooting tops in or very near LOT CWA.

Continuing the Severe in Dawson Charley

Initial thinking from radar data is that cell is starting to die down, but did have a few more upticks in overshooting top product.  Cell is no longer deviant in motion and got a new warning out to cover its trip back to the northeast.

Holding off

We held off on issuing a warning for a cell moving into our CWA from Dawson County to the south where it produced 3″ diameter hail at 2305 UTC. For 3 reasons we held off.

1. the near storm environment had already been worked over by previous storms and radar showed stratiform rain falling in our area.

2. Prob Severe dropped from 96% at 2316 UTC to 41% at 2326 to 5% at 2330.

3. Lightning was not very impressive and diminished to near zero in the time series plot.

MrSnow/BT

Extending SVR eastward Charley

Continue to have an overshooting top and good DVIL with this line.  Had some stronger wind gusts and at an airport in Valley county (53 mph).  Near severe and extended the warning through the likely gust front area north of the higher DVIL storm.

SVR for La Salle County

A rapidly growing storm developed over Putnam county IL and is slowly shifting eastward into La Salle county IL. The lightning jump algorithm has indicated as much as a 5 sigma increase with this storm. The CIMSS Prob Severe Model has indicated a high probability of severe storms over Putman and La Salle County.  See images of below, including the the severe thunderstorm warning issued for La Salle County.
-Wacha

Prob Severe jump along with 3 alpha jump

Issued warning on storm to the west of the radar…prob severe took a big jump while we were looking at it…after I had issued the warning we also looked at the lightning jump data and noticed a significant jump to 3 alpha.sig3_lot

A Tiny Warning for a Tiny Storm

Issued a tiny 15 minute warning for a storm in the northern portion of our CWA. ENI data showed a lightning “jump” from nothing to about 10-12 quickly. This coincided with a jump to 60 dbz to 25kft and 55 dbz to 35kft. SevereProb also jumped quickly up to 90% right on our CWA border.

-Shasta

ProbSevere to the rescue

Another case of the bright pink contour grabbing my attention from writing previous blog post. Cell not in area yet, but will be watching as it moves NE into our CWA.

-BT