The Satellite Proving Ground at the Hazardous Weather Testbed

Error message I get at my WFO on ProbSevere

Pops up as a red banner and ProbSevere disabled.

Paint error: null:: The resource [NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model (%)] has been disabled.com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.exception.VizException: Paint error: null:: The resource [NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model (%)] has been disabled.
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.drawables.AbstractRenderableDisplay.paintResource(AbstractRenderableDisplay.java:531)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.maps.display.MapRenderableDisplay.paint(MapRenderableDisplay.java:188)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.d2d.core.map.D2DMapRenderableDisplay.paint(D2DMapRenderableDisplay.java:172)
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.VizDisplayPane.glDrawInternal(VizDisplayPane.java:523)
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.VizDisplayPane.draw(VizDisplayPane.java:477)
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.DrawCoordinatedPane.draw(DrawCoordinatedPane.java:172)
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.DrawCoordinatorJob$1.run(DrawCoordinatorJob.java:196)
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.UILockListener.doPendingWork(UILockListener.java:162)
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.UISynchronizer$3.run(UISynchronizer.java:154)
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.RunnableLock.run(RunnableLock.java:35)
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Synchronizer.runAsyncMessages(Synchronizer.java:182)
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Display.runAsyncMessages(Display.java:4528)
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Display.readAndDispatch(Display.java:4146)
at org.eclipse.e4.ui.internal.workbench.swt.PartRenderingEngine$4.run(PartRenderingEngine.java:1121)
at org.eclipse.core.databinding.observable.Realm.runWithDefault(Realm.java:336)
at org.eclipse.e4.ui.internal.workbench.swt.PartRenderingEngine.run(PartRenderingEngine.java:1022)
at org.eclipse.e4.ui.internal.workbench.E4Workbench.createAndRunUI(E4Workbench.java:150)
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench$5.run(Workbench.java:687)
at org.eclipse.core.databinding.observable.Realm.runWithDefault(Realm.java:336)
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench.createAndRunWorkbench(Workbench.java:604)
at org.eclipse.ui.PlatformUI.createAndRunWorkbench(PlatformUI.java:148)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.personalities.cave.component.CAVEApplication.startComponent(CAVEApplication.java:173)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.application.VizApplication.start(VizApplication.java:102)
at org.eclipse.equinox.internal.app.EclipseAppHandle.run(EclipseAppHandle.java:196)
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.internal.adaptor.EclipseAppLauncher.runApplication(EclipseAppLauncher.java:134)
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.internal.adaptor.EclipseAppLauncher.start(EclipseAppLauncher.java:104)
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.adaptor.EclipseStarter.run(EclipseStarter.java:388)
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.adaptor.EclipseStarter.run(EclipseStarter.java:243)
at sun.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke0(Native Method)
at sun.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(NativeMethodAccessorImpl.java:62)
at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43)
at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498)
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.invokeFramework(Main.java:673)
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.basicRun(Main.java:610)
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.run(Main.java:1519)
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.main(Main.java:1492)
Caused by: java.lang.NullPointerException
at edu.wisc.ssec.cimss.common.dataplugin.probsevere.ProbSevereRecord.getPolyGeoms(ProbSevereRecord.java:284)
at edu.wisc.ssec.cimss.viz.probsevere.rsc.ProbSevereResource.paintInternal(ProbSevereResource.java:302)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.rsc.AbstractVizResource.paint(AbstractVizResource.java:542)
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.drawables.AbstractRenderableDisplay.paintResource(AbstractRenderableDisplay.java:528)
... 35 more

Watching to the west again

Where AllSky says LI is -8, new development on IR.

NUCAPS All Sky LAPS contrast

A modified NUCAPS sounding depicted a LI of -3 in the wake of the convection in the NW corner of the MPX CWA. This is within an area of more cloudiness and the All Sky LAP derived product is using GFS in this area, and shows a more unstable environment with a LI of -7.

Perhaps tornadogenesis soon?

Lightning on FED starting to go up again, right as cell with rotation starts to meet up with east-west oriented boundary to the east of that cell (see bottom right spectrum width product).
AzShear product following that rotation over time well...watching for increase in intensity there.

Good for a quick glance

As you're debating issuing a tornado or severe warning, it is good to see the lightning changes over time as well as cloud tops. Both are trending more severe in the image above.

NUCAPS comes in more unstable

AllSky LI is dropping over time...with the peak red color above being around -8. Modified NUCAPS sounding came up with -11...whereas non-modified was -6. CAPE also is more unstable in new sounding...whereas AllSky is in the mid 2000s, NUCAPS was mid 3000s...non-modified in the mid 1000s.

Bowing Segment moving toward Wright Co., MN

A bowing segment heading toward Wright Co., MN initially showed diminishing convective trends. However, some drying in the wake of the line combined with strong wind speeds within the lowest tilts of the radar depicted some concern for severe wind gusts, and after a diminishing trend ProbSevere did begin to increase again. Looking at the All Sky LAP CAPE, instability increased from ~960 J/kg at 1627z to ~1650 J/kg at 1828z, so the All Sky CAPE product showed some utility of assessing the downstream convective environment.