GLM MFA for Storm re-generation

GLM Minimum Flash Area showed some utility in boosting lead time for storm re-generation. The storm in the center of the first image had started to weaken a bit after moving off of the outflow boundary that initiated it.



The storm continues to show no new updraft development in the sat imagery as well as MFA product.



At 20:29 GLM MFA begins to indicate that there may be a new updraft forming as it interacts with a differential heating boundary/outflow from the leading storm.



Over the next 20 minutes the updraft continues to strengthen as the storm becomes more robust. The MFA led the visible satellite depiction of the new updraft by 2-4 min. This could be useful when trying to decide whether to continue warnings or not.

GLM Assist In DSS

The below image shows GOES-16 day cloud convection (DCC) beneath GLM Minimum Flash Area (MFA). Point F is a DSS event. DCC shows clouds glaciating a county upstream of our DSS event, with the storm becoming electrified shortly after glaciation per MFA. This prompted a call to the emergency manager providing support for the DSS event letting them know that lightning was imminent.

ENI total lightning also shows lightning (white points), but the point data fails to show the extent of the lightning, which may lead decision makers to think that they have more time to react to the approaching lightning than they actually do.



Sandor Clegane

ProbSevere Trend Tracker

ProbSevere has been very useful over the years.   One desirable feature would be to have a "trend tracker" see the example from WFO MPX.  It sounds like work is being done on this endeavor?

Waiting on convection - diagnosis and investigation of products

Corpus Christi --
In investigating the environment we've deemed the convection to be more or less dependent on synoptic forcing via the cold front dropping southeast.

A



In A, plotted is Total Precipitable Water along with SPC Convective Outlook and analyzed fronts. A couple of things can be noted: TPW is very high under the Slight Risk, and it is displayed very nicely with good resolution contained within the gradient. This is a good example without going into too much detail about how our environment is primed for severe weather. However, NUCAPS Gridded Data has not come into our area as of 20z. This makes it hard to test the product and how it captures the boundary layer. 

Now, we wait.

B



As we wait for the cold front to drop SE, our attention is focused on convection happening in NE Mexico (pictured in B). These cells popped up right along the CAPE boundary between values of 300 j/kg to 1500 j/kg.

C



As can be seen in C, the GLM has indicated these storms contain lightning, thus they are intensifying in nature. We will now be monitoring the hail threat.

-lakeeffect

All-Sky Gradients & New Storm Development

Today was a great example for how the improved resolution from All-Sky LAP allowed us to hone in on exactly where new storm development will occur.  Convection across Mexico developed where the front sagged south along the moisture/CAPE gradient. While in this case the CIRA Merged TPW showed the same gradient, the resolution was still better with All-Sky. Baseline blended TPW as well as satellite derived TPW/CAPE were useless due to either being overly smoothed, or not displaying in cloudy areas. Great diagnostic tool.



-- FLGatorDon

AllSkyLAP - CAPE vs RAP

Takeaway - CAPE on the AllSkyLAP shows a good comparison to RAP CAPE - perhaps even better near the mountainous areas of old Mexico.  Think forecasters will consider using this.

Week 1 Day 3 Operations

Today we are operating again in south central Texas as an upper level low continues to meander across the southern U.S.

-Michael

All Sky LAP CAPE - Trends

Noticed the trend of AllSkyLAP - CAPE was interesting - and bucked the trend of the GFS background.

2157 UTC:  LAP seemed to have a good handle on higher CAPE trends at this timeframe with over 1000 J/kg in a wide area - which seemed to match convective trends.



2227 UTC:  LAP reduced CAPE over much of the area - even in areas that did not see storms.  Skies were generally were generally partly/mostly cloudy - but the trend appeared to reduce values too quickly.



2258 UTC:  LAP CAPE appeared boost again somewhat - but still less than the GFS CAPE.  These sort of "bouncy" CAPE trends will be examined the remainder of the week - to see if this trend continues.

Revisiting the AllSky Products

Went back to do a broader-scale mesoanalysis and noticed right away that storms are initiating right along the southwestern extent of a moisture/instability gradient, and following a SW to NE gradient between two areas of higher PWATs/CAPE, as depicted on the middle image below (reflectivity overlaid on AllSky CAPE). Just focusing on the trend aspect of these products is very useful in determining where storms may continue to develop and roll. I attempted to look at the merged TPW product, but unfortunately, the data I have is almost an hour old by the time of these screenshots, and the lower resolution isn't as easy to work with in comparison. It's possible the values of the TPW product may be closer to reality, but gravitating more toward the tendencies of the current state of the atmosphere found in the AllSky products seem to be more useful for this purpose.

~Gritty

More Lightning Analysis

So far, the MFA is following the previous logic of using it as a way to identify vigorous updrafts. Below, the progression in a 15-minute period follows that correlation between the smaller flashes increasing in area indicating a strengthening cell(s). However, I could see its utility degraded in a larger-scale multicell environment with clusters close together, especially as the areas of smaller flashes increases, given the low-resolution of the grid itself. As for Total Optical Energy (TOE, at the bottom), I think there is benefit in using this product as well to monitor trends, but I had to use a different color curve for it to stand out to me more (last animation, below).

~Gritty

2146Z:



2155Z:



2200Z:



TOE Loops: