2045Z UNR update - satellite and lightning trends

...update....the cell to the north did in fact product a CG strike per ENTLN data approximately 5-10 minutes after flashes/events where first noted in GLM data.

previous post...

The activity working across south central MT associated with a 500mb speed maxima has continued to develop eastward. Day cloud phase shows an increase in cumulus over far southeast MT over the last hour, and this activity has slowly increased in depth. Meanwhile the cluster of showers just to the west is producing a thicker anvil layer

The Sandwich display shows gradually cooling cloud tops indicating the convective cluster continues to slowly strengthen as it moves into a somewhat more favorable environment.

A 4-panel lightning display shows an increase in lightning trends as well. What's interesting to note (aside from the general increase in lightning trends) is the top left panel is a few flashes and events in a shower to the north of the better convection...an area where cloud to ground lightning has yet to be noted, and max dBz is near 30. Perhaps an indication this cell is strengthening and could produce lightning in the next few minutes.

-64BoggsLites.

Monitering convection along dryline

While storms are initiating near front, have been watching along dry line for new storm development. While that has not yet occurred, did catch a failed attempt at initation.  Visible loop (below) indicates what looks like an orphan anvil develop along the dry line.

In addition, daytime cloud RGB also showed that glaciation started (color becoming more green), it never grew past that initial color and diminished quickly.

-JRM

Bismark WVR

Issued a severe thunderstorm warning for large hail and damaging wind on a storm moving into the CWA from the west. Saw rapid cooling in the 5 minute Day Cloud Phase and the Sandwich imagery. An overlay of PROBSevere showed an increase in ProbHail from about 50% to 90% as the cloud tops cooled. All tilt radar display also confirmed these observations by showing 60dbZ over 30,000ft. Will now be able to monitor 1 min imagery.

Forecast Update - Bismarck CWA

Currently watching developing cumulus field behind first area of convection along and east-west oriented stationary front near Montana/South Dakota border.

Daytime microphysics RGB indicating glaciation taking place in this area and with GOES-16 derived Lifted Indexes suggesting this area most unstable would expect storm growth to continue. Intensity of storms further east in line with previous stability analysis as storms appear to be moving into less favorable environment.

A fairly rapid glaciation  of the storm was noted between 1927 UTC and 1957 UTC.

 -JRM

GLM: Visualization

Noticed when looking at gridded GLM data (8km - 5min data/1 min update), had trouble quickly picking out area of high activity.  Given activity wasn't too intense, seemed that activity was a bit muted.

 Opted to go create a rough custom color scheme using warm colors to be able to contrast more against a visible satellite image. Wasn't too concerned with the actual amounts of flash occurring, but mainly trends in relation to other cells. Mainly another SA tool to quickly discern potential problem areas. --Tahoe

Combine 1 min VIS and lgt

This loop shows a combination of 1 min VIS data overlayed with 1 min GLM flashes. This may be a good DSS tool or a way to track lightning trends. -ams

Anvil GLM events.

GLM Events 5 minutes old to new over National mosaic radar.

Benjamin

GLM vs land based networks

GLM is providing some great added value to the other earth based networks. When playing around with the color tables you can really pick up on the peak areas a tad better.

A quick look at NUCAPS gridded data.

First chance to take a look at gridded NUCAPS data. Comparing the 700mb and 500mb NUCAPS grids to RAP and HRRR analysis, the NUCAPS was consistently about 2 degrees C colder at 700mb, and 1-2C colder at 500mb. This is also evident in the H7-5 lapse rate image below, with NUCAPS in the top left, then clockwise HRRR, NAM40, and GFS20.

-64BoggsLites

Bismark CWA Derived Wind Analysis

Quick look at the derived wind fields across Bismarck CWA. Still a lot of clear skies, but sum information can be gleaned from image below (upper left 300mb, upper right 500mb, lower left 700mb):

Think lack of elements to track at the moment have lowered my confidence in some of the values, but in areas with  more extensive cloud cover seems to be picking up jet at 300mb.  Think best track to take is to monitor how these fields change over time as tracking elements begin to increase.

One concern I have is the color and labeling scheme. The current default is the same as VWP where red corresponds to poor data quality and green is good. This could be fairly confusing. Instead of coloring by speed, perhaps coloring by pressure level would be better?  As it stands you could not overlay several layers over an image and use it easily.


-JRM