Meso-sector Visible

GOES-16 Visible satellite this afternoon shows decent convection developing across western MT with new development occurring on the south side.

The red lines show the CWA boundaries.  Not much cloud development back to the east over central MT right now, but convection will continue to move east.  Lack of clouds to the west show storms will remain elevated as they push on east.

-ISU2004

Comparison of RAP and GOES-16 CAPE values

While waiting for convection to form in or around the LOT CWA, decided to compare the GOES-16 CAPE data with the RAP 2hr forecast.

In the screenshot below, the RAP BL CAPE is on the left, while the GOES-16 CAPE is on the right.  Both CAPE imagery use the same colortable and values go from 0-5000 J/kg.

In this case, the BL CAPE value from the RAP (18Z run) is significantly higher than the GOES-16 data.  Prior training highlighted the need to focus more on the gradients and less on the values and the GOES-16 data has a fairly decent gradient from higher (2000+ J/kg) to lower (1400-1500 J/kg) values across the ILX CWA.  This gradient matches up fairly well where the edge of the developing cloud field is located.

-GOB

ProbSevere and Lightning

Looks like lightning has refocused on the southern storm.  Also note the GLM lightning data is a bit offset from the Earth Networks due to parallax error.  The prob severe on the southern edge of that line has now pulsed upwards.

Cloud tops also continue to cool on the southern edge of this convection.

-ISU2004

Alternative Prob Severe Color Scale

Developed a different color scale for Prob Severe. Not interpolated, but split into 10% increments. The reasoning was to better visualize the levels of Prob Severe. Will need additional examples to see if it works better than the interpolated default scale.

Dale Doback

First Warning of the Day

Storm in NW part of CWA has really pulsed up in accordance with the jump in the lightning activity and prob severe (mainly for hail).  However, wind still seems the more likely threat. Prob Severe Now 69 percent.

-ISU2004

LOT - Day Cloud Phase RGB

As a followup to the previous post for LOT CWA, the Day Cloud Phase RGB does help confirm the cloud type/phase over and to the west of the LOT CWA.

The areas in white highlight water clouds, while the green indicates glaciation (note the convection in northern lower Michigan).  There are some high clouds also moving east-southeast towards the area across Iowa.

-GOB

Billings Setup

Watching as convection is getting going ahead of an embedded shortwave trough crossing the axis of the upper level ridge.  Morning 12z sounding shows quite a bit of dry air down low.

Looking at the special 18z sounding shows fairly decent inverted V setup with DCAPE nearly 1300J/kg.  Certainly a decent setup for some downburst winds this afternoon.  Winds through the mid levels are rather weak, but any collapsing cell could gain momentum and accelerate to the ground.

GOES-16 10.3 IR satellite already showing some cooling cloud tops moving into the Billings, MT CWA.  Plenty of clearing out ahead of this activity for it to continue on as it moves west.

ISU2004

LOT - Satellite Overview (with Derived Stability Products)

This group is starting the week in the LOT CWA, within the SPC Marginal/Slight risk area.

Taking a look at the derived stability parameters from GOES-16 highlights an unstable atmosphere to the west of the LOT CWA (CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and LI values around -7C).

I found adding the 0.64um Visible imagery below the derived data to be helpful in filling in the gaps where the cloud mask was in place.

Looking at a loop of the satellite data, there is a southward push of the lower stratus/cu out of DVN's cwa that may delay the start of convection some.

-GOB

GOES16 Not Labeling Products in AWIPS II

I'm fairly new with AWIPS II and using the GOES16 data is rather difficult figuring out which product I selected in the CAVE display.  My recommendation is to label the actual product in the bottom right instead of just listing the Channel and Microns.  It should label just like the drop down window for the GOES16 products.

--Dan S.

Week 3 Day 1

Today begins the third week of the GOES-R/JPSS Experiment in the HWT. Today, forecasters will operate in the Chicago, IL and Billings, MT CWAs.

-Michael Bowlan