ProbSevere and Lightning

Looks like lightning has refocused on the southern storm.  Also note the GLM lightning data is a bit offset from the Earth Networks due to parallax error.  The prob severe on the southern edge of that line has now pulsed upwards.

Cloud tops also continue to cool on the southern edge of this convection.

-ISU2004

Alternative Prob Severe Color Scale

Developed a different color scale for Prob Severe. Not interpolated, but split into 10% increments. The reasoning was to better visualize the levels of Prob Severe. Will need additional examples to see if it works better than the interpolated default scale.

Dale Doback

First Warning of the Day

Storm in NW part of CWA has really pulsed up in accordance with the jump in the lightning activity and prob severe (mainly for hail).  However, wind still seems the more likely threat. Prob Severe Now 69 percent.

-ISU2004

LOT - Day Cloud Phase RGB

As a followup to the previous post for LOT CWA, the Day Cloud Phase RGB does help confirm the cloud type/phase over and to the west of the LOT CWA.

The areas in white highlight water clouds, while the green indicates glaciation (note the convection in northern lower Michigan).  There are some high clouds also moving east-southeast towards the area across Iowa.

-GOB

Billings Setup

Watching as convection is getting going ahead of an embedded shortwave trough crossing the axis of the upper level ridge.  Morning 12z sounding shows quite a bit of dry air down low.

Looking at the special 18z sounding shows fairly decent inverted V setup with DCAPE nearly 1300J/kg.  Certainly a decent setup for some downburst winds this afternoon.  Winds through the mid levels are rather weak, but any collapsing cell could gain momentum and accelerate to the ground.

GOES-16 10.3 IR satellite already showing some cooling cloud tops moving into the Billings, MT CWA.  Plenty of clearing out ahead of this activity for it to continue on as it moves west.

ISU2004

LOT - Satellite Overview (with Derived Stability Products)

This group is starting the week in the LOT CWA, within the SPC Marginal/Slight risk area.

Taking a look at the derived stability parameters from GOES-16 highlights an unstable atmosphere to the west of the LOT CWA (CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and LI values around -7C).

I found adding the 0.64um Visible imagery below the derived data to be helpful in filling in the gaps where the cloud mask was in place.

Looking at a loop of the satellite data, there is a southward push of the lower stratus/cu out of DVN's cwa that may delay the start of convection some.

-GOB

GOES16 Not Labeling Products in AWIPS II

I'm fairly new with AWIPS II and using the GOES16 data is rather difficult figuring out which product I selected in the CAVE display.  My recommendation is to label the actual product in the bottom right instead of just listing the Channel and Microns.  It should label just like the drop down window for the GOES16 products.

--Dan S.

Week 3 Day 1

Today begins the third week of the GOES-R/JPSS Experiment in the HWT. Today, forecasters will operate in the Chicago, IL and Billings, MT CWAs.

-Michael Bowlan

End of Week 2

Overall weekly thoughts and suggestions for future training:

• Morning discussions and surveys were good
• Liked having the experts here
• Four day length of testing was good, 12-8 PM shifts work well
• Comfortable environment
• Appreciate getting reports and live picturesSuggestion to label the work stations, so everyone knows which CWA are being operated by whom
• Public should see more of what’s being done here, what they are funding and that it’s important…cool stuff
• Video surveys would be good, easy to sit in front of a webcam at the end of the day
• Change the surveys each day, make them more relevant to the day’s events

EWP Week 2 End of Day 4...Thoughts and Feedback

Our forecasters ended the day in the Omaha, NE and Sioux Falls, SD offices.  Storms developed during the afternoon hours over far northeastern NE, southeastern SD and western IA.

• ·       GOES-16 ABI Imagery and products (Imagery/Derived/Channel Differences/RGB Composites)

o   Played with Channel 1-15…was able to see the difference in temperatures for 13,14,15

o   Fire products did really well, especially with the fire over North Carolina, really popped out

o   Need help sheets, some case studies

o   Change the naming convention of the RGB products

o   Wouldn’t hurt to spend an hour at the beginning on each week going through the RGB images

o   Check the sampling in AWIPS, make sure they are correct

• ·       GLM

o   Storms that spiked on the gridded data drew attention to storms, still hard to look at the point and be able to notice trends

o   Like the color table with the bright yellows and reds really differentiating the storms that needed to be watched

o   Excited because it’s going to cover some areas we don’t have current coverage for, and good for public safety

o   For training, open up with some case studies, capture the attention of the forecaster

o   Confusion about the difference between groups, events and flashes…need to create a good conceptual model…what is actually happening in the storm?

• ·       NUCAPS

o   Point soundings were useful, matched the environment

o   Gridded data weren’t coming across well in AWIPS, things were missing

o   Liked to look at the gridded data for higher areas of CAPE and the pick the point sounding near that area

o   Didn’t play with the cross sections, but think they will be valuable for forecasting

o   Need to improve latency

o   Needs to be a way to know which point was clicked, an identifier besides latitude and longitude

o   Since the MetOps come in sooner, they might be more helpful if they were operational

• ·       ProbSevere

o   Trends were so much more important than anything

o   ProbHail was really accurate

o   ProbWind seemed to really catch high wind values where it was most expected

o   Would like a way to look at threats as individual layers, maybe a four panel…since some days certain threats are more predominant than others

o   ProbTor wasn’t as good when storms morphed together into larger ProbSevere objects

o   Saw high azimuthal shear values, but ProbTor value was low

o   Like the contouring

-Holly Obermeier