Low level moisture ahead of the cold front will continue to pull dew points in the mid to upper 50s into the Dakotas through late this evening. An upper level short wave axis moving across MO/WY will move to the east and increase chances for severe weather development within the next few hours and continuing late evening. Large hail likely to be the main severe weather threat at first and then large and damaging win gust as the evening approaches.

Derived Sat Products

Tracking the return of moisture with surface dew points and using the derived TPW image. Some masked data with TPW but enough upstream to see the progression of higher PW airmass.

NUCAPS

Mets Ops NUCAP 16Z sounding available. Have modified sounding using 17Z surface conditions.The sounding from 12Z RAP is included for comparison. Enough heating has occurred that surface based in version and cap has been eliminated.

LBF CWFA Conv. Discussion

Moisture slowling returning to the forecast aboard southeast winds with dewpoints in the lower 60s, and middle 60s south south of the area. Fog has finally burnt lifted in the far southeast, while convection has developed near KCYS. Driver today will be a strong upper level wave as seen on H2OV channels coming into Wyoming sparking strong convection in western WY. All short term convective models hold off on convection til a strong cap weakens about 21z-22z and then quickly develop and move it east. Combination of wind and hail risks initially will turn to a potentially significant wind event over the about the east 1/3rd of the forecast area. 70 mph winds could be common by mid evening along the front of the line of storms. Tornado risk appears to be small but no non-existent as embedded supercells in the line may be problematic at times. Expect a severe weather watch late this afternoon with a high likelihood of convection between 4 and 10 pm...resulting in severe weather over much of the forecast. Things should calm down fairly quickly after dark.

Benjamin

Watching and wating

Nothing moving in yet but using the 10.3-12.3 channel differences fairly easy to see the moisture tongue moving north ahead of the short wave into the northern plains.  Once you get use to the color tables this is helping to identify where the moisture is moving.

EWP Week 2 Day 2

Participants will be working out of the North Platte, NE and Rapid City, SD CWAs today.  A potent shortwave is moving across the Rockies and is expected to generate severe thunderstorms across much of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon, eventually consolidating into an overnight MCS toward the east.

-Holly Obermeier

GLM with Visible Imagery

Here's an example of visible imagery with GLM overlay:

Note the highest concentration of events match the locations of any overshooting tops.

Interpolation was turned on in this example, which seems to visually work better when overlaying it on other imagery; however, there is an issue with the interpolation where the data looks too blocky with random cutoffs on the edges.

-Lost Met. 

IR Overshooting tops

The ir overshooting tops help to catch a severe storm and possible tornado. This product was a huge help and one of those things you could spot quickly before the cores shows up on the radar.

ProbSvr trends

Watching well defined outflow boundary interacting with storm in Yuma County. ProbSvr numbers have been rising.

Merger GIF

Merger GIF

Benjamin