Experimental CG Lightning Probability

Note: The CG Lightning Probability product is not a GOES-R or JPSS funded project.

Below is an animation of MRMS radar 0.5 km reflectivity with the experimantal CG lightning probability and NLDN CG overlaid. Notice that the experimental CG lightning probability rises to 58% 14 minutes before the first CG strike detected by NLDN. Probablities increased to 67% 5 minutes before the strike, and 72% approximately 2 minutes before the strike. This has potential significant value for providing lead time to outdoor events. In addition, the National Weather Service in Amarillo recently began experimenting with Aviation Weather Warning for lightning for Rick Husband Airport, and this experimental product could potentially allow the office to provide a better service to aviation customers. Other offices provide lightning warnings to airports and likely could potentially benefit from this. I will be watching this product closely throughout the rest of this experiment to see how much lead time it normally provides and how frequent false alarms are. My first impression is very possitive.

-dryadiabat

Strom Southeast of LBB's RDA

Storm development has occurred southeast of the Lubbock, TX RDA in the Texas Panhandle.  While initially the all-tilts reflectivity looked promising, PROBSvr continued to indicate marginal severe potential.  Combine this with no significant lightning jump and low flash density on the PGLM array, the decision was made to hold off on a warning for now.

Moisture return (as indicated by Layered PW products) portends convective intensification in the TX Panhandle

J-Money:

As the attached images show, a narrow S-N plume of moisture is returning to the TX/OK Panhandles, coincident with the approach of a 700-500 mb short-wave.  As such, convection is intensifying.

                                                  1-minute visible loop

                                                 4-panel layered PW

                                          SPC meso-analysis at 850 mb

CI Prob leads convection

CI Prob signature jumped to 80 before convection followed up 15 minutes later on vis imagery and radar. -thunder

   CI Probablilty loop

  Radar Loop

Severe CI false alarm

J-Money:

On the upper right-hand panel (Severe CI) of the attached image, at about 2130z, a very high probability of severe development spiked (red color, likely at or above 80%).  This, otherwise, seemed like garden variety cumulus development, enhanced by the terrain.  The cumulus field in this vicinity subsequently dissipated/flattened, between 2130z and 22z.

One Minute Data in IR and WV

One minute data is not limited to visible satellite. Here's a comparison of one and 15 minute data for IR and WV.

Reverberating effect of a thunderstorm, as shown by 1-minute imagery

J-Money:

As this loop shows, the high-res visible imagery deptics a ripple effect of clearing/stabilization, in almost every direction from this strong-severe storm.

1 minute imagery

1-minute visible shows so much info. While we are looking at the cloud features. We see what may be a gravity wave pushing over ne. Wave clouds pushing againt northern flank of building T-storm and what looks like diffluent flow pushing into storm from the SE which could slow storm strengthening. Lots of features that would not be as prominent in normal imagery.
-thunder

1-minute imagery and near-term storm evolution

J-Money:

The attached loop shows the storm perhaps becoming anchored to an outflow boundary.  Better stream-wise vorticity potential?  Three cheers for 1-minute data!

Comparing One Minute Satellite with Standard 15 Minute

Take a look at the evolution of the storm southwest of San Angelo in one minute visible satellite data compared to 15 minute data. The difference in the evolution is amazing.

-dryadiabat